Preoperative testing: Bayes theorem
Last updated: 03/06/2015
Bayes’ theorem (with regards to preoperative testing) states that the post-test probability of a person having a disease is related to both the sensitivity and specificity of said test AND the prevalence of the disease in the population – this can be summarized by the concept of positive predictive value (PPV), the percentage of positive test results which are actually true:
PPV = true positives / (true positives + false positives)
PPV = (sensitivity x prevalence) /
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